Konjugate Fintech: A Transparent Model for Bank Runs, Market and DeFi Risk Analysis

For the past two months, I've been building Konjugate, a tool for modeling dynamic interacting systems. More recently, I've been using it to build a FinTech toolbox on top.

This video is me testing the waters. Here's what it can actually do today, here's where it breaks down and I'd like your criticism.

In about 10 minutes, you'll see:

• The equations behind every result, worked through live. No black box.
• A severe bank-run scenario, including a forked simulation testing a central-bank policy response.
• An automatic search for the exact point where the bank breaks.
• Real market data, tested for genuine relationships between assets and then subjected to shocks.
• An independent out-of-sample test asking the uncFomfortable question: does any of this actually predict anything?
• A DeFi liquidation cascade modeled end to end, with ETH and USDC conserved throughout.

I'll also show you what I think this toolbox is actually good for right now and what it isn't.

My goal is not to convince you that Konjugate works.

I'd rather you trust it a little less and have it be right than trust it more and have it be wrong.

For now, use it to build intuition. Don't use it for real risk detection yet. If something looks wrong, I'd genuinely like to know.

Konjugate itself lives at https://www.konjugate.com, and the full source is on GitHub at https://github.com/zenineasa/Konjugate if you want to install it, read the code or file an issue. The FinTech toolbox shown in this video is a separate addon, at https://github.com/zenineasa/konjugate-fintech.

Chapters

• 0:00 Cold open
• 1:12 The model's equations, live
• 2:41 The severe price shock
• 3:34 Forking it: What is a policy response worth?
• 4:10 Explore: Finding the breaking point
• 4:58 Real markets: The what-if
• 6:29 The real test: US and Asia
• 7:38 The DeFi liquidation cascade
• 8:55 Replay and project forward
• 9:59 The honesty segment and what's next

Tags: fintech, risk modeling, bank run simulation, stress testing, DeFi, systemic risk, Konjugate

#Fintech #Quant #DeFi #RiskModeling #SystemicRisk #StressTesting #Simulation #Konjugate